Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 12.346678 14.433630 16.720777 19.407304 22.470168 25.846754 29.844306
2024-10-13 8.874636 11.637972 14.975904 19.276732 24.640145 31.074524 39.340754
2024-10-20 6.730564 9.760209 13.740698 19.286682 26.735679 36.306062 49.427449
2024-10-27 5.311149 8.420738 12.818593 19.372728 28.745590 41.493514 59.927581
2024-11-03 4.659586 7.972419 12.958441 20.816794 32.646953 49.494331 74.913985
2024-11-10 4.047495 7.432517 12.827006 21.771709 35.870649 56.782745 89.531702
2024-11-17 3.522238 6.911431 12.607335 22.502086 38.762450 63.777430 104.270246
2024-11-24 2.931931 6.150190 11.853190 22.225619 39.977814 68.267503 115.535742
2024-12-01 2.376183 5.331569 10.853624 21.362832 40.077550 70.935979 124.089412
2024-12-08 1.953033 4.677283 10.032770 20.672801 40.339724 73.813460 133.114376
2024-12-15 1.699492 4.316848 9.701603 20.815122 42.039786 79.176023 146.582369
2024-12-22 1.439310 3.884752 9.155284 20.460678 42.771571 82.896247 157.498138
2024-12-29 1.329523 3.787012 9.304739 21.545010 46.395508 92.154630 178.995355
2025-01-05 1.167944 3.529934 9.075479 21.833000 48.533582 98.951448 196.736273
2025-01-12 1.021764 3.277382 8.813771 22.014850 50.477395 105.550204 214.628269
2025-01-19 0.895562 3.046755 8.562055 22.178936 52.391659 112.233696 233.151354
2025-01-26 0.864875 3.079422 8.950275 23.834474 57.582531 125.612111 265.145903
2025-02-02 0.806576 3.016379 9.088291 24.922374 61.655707 137.083911 294.236069
2025-02-09 0.741912 2.917553 9.117110 25.750234 65.232727 147.813110 322.564027
2025-02-16 0.639882 2.669788 8.705233 25.440379 66.227932 153.355533 341.027023
2025-02-23 0.530197 2.362022 8.068441 24.468118 65.592846 155.448896 352.693976
2025-03-02 0.443779 2.109014 7.537943 23.689854 65.315419 158.247374 365.940256
2025-03-09 0.395197 1.984164 7.366748 23.850556 67.305098 166.060180 390.045345